BETTING odds for the seat of Mildura at the November state election have been released by the TAB, and they suggest that some high-profile candidates have a lot of ground to make up.
Ali Cupper, an independent MP who won the seat from the Nationals in 2018, was at the very short odds of $1.15 for a $1 bet on Monday before drifting out to $1.20 yesterday.
The Coalition of The Nationals and the Liberals, each of which has a candidate at this election (Jade Benham and Paul Matheson respectively) started at $5 then shortened to $3.50.
The Mildura electorate covers Robinvale and Manangatang in the Swan Hill Council area.
Ms Benham has taken extended leave from Swan Hill council duties to run for the seat, while police officer Mr Matheson is the president of the Sunraysia Football and Netball League.
Their much longer odds come despite a perceived Coalition advantage in that its candidates can direct preferences to each other, and it is thought that Ms Cupper will need to win a challenging 50 per cent of the primary vote to overcome that and hold the seat.
History shows, however, that long odds at this stage are not necessarily indicative of how voting will go.
Meanwhile, Daniel Andrews is tipped to lead Labor to a landslide victory.
Sportsbet has again cut Labor’s price and they are now $1.08 to govern, after $1.20 was offered last month.
The Coalition has eased from $4.95 out to $7.00 and any other party is $101.
The online bookmaker has also opened betting on the 88 electorates and has Labor ahead in 52 of those. A Labor majority, of over 45 seats, is at $1.20.
Election analyst Dr Kevin Bonham said election betting odds were “novelty value” and were more a reflection of the past.
“Betting odds don’t have a very good predictive track record, Dr Bonham said.
“In this (Mildura) case, I think that what they are reflecting is what happened at the recent federal election, in particular, and also the strong record of independents at recent elections which is that generally, first-term independents tend to receive a large boost on the second time they run,” he said.
“We saw this in the federal election where the independents who were holding seats like Helen Haines (Indi) and Zali Steggall (Warringah) had big swings to them and became much safer.
“And it’s also a while since any genuine independent has actually lost their seat in a state or federal election — that hasn’t happened for several years.”
Dr Bonham described the odds as “a mixture of conventional wisdom and crazy rich people”.
“Notionally, the seat was very close at the last election, whichever way you slice it,” he said.
“I don’t have any special intelligence regarding the seat and I haven’t seen any particular polling, but it will be interesting to see how this one goes.”
Ms Cupper was at $21 for the win when she entered the election campaign in 2018.
Labor and the Greens, both considered to have no chance of winning Mildura (neither has announced a candidate yet), were at $23 and $34 respectively for the 2022 poll, which is on November 26.
