Almond producers are in “the lap of the gods”, as they now rely on ideal weather conditions as their last hope for a good pollination season to salvage a bumper 2022-23 almond crop.
Almond Board of Australia chair Tim Jackson said the shortfall of 70,000 beehives for almond producers in August, meant the only way crops could achieve high pollination was if ideal weather conditions prevailed.
Mr Jackson said producers faced a “major drop” in tonnage this almond season and that the board was now shifting its focus to risk mitigation ahead of a varroa mite outbreak he believed could remain an issue for years to come.
“We’re in the lap of gods,” he said.
“The optimal number of hives to hectare is thought to be five. Some of these farms will be going in with two (hives).
“What they’ll be relying on to overcome the shortfall is perfect weather conditions. Warm weather, longer days to enhance the activity of the bees.”
The chances of low rainfall in August are slim, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlook, but there may be warmer days ahead.
There is a 60 to 70 per cent chance of exceeding median rainfall next month across from west of Mildura to Swan Hill.
While rainfall figures differ across the NSW-Victoria border, in Mildura the long-term median rainfall is 20.2mm.
The temperature outlook shows a 60 per cent chance of warmer days above the long-term average across the Mildura to Swan Hill region.
The NSW Government announced last week that beekeepers outside of biosecurity zones in the state could apply for permits to move their hives.
But Agriculture Victoria confirmed earlier this week that no permits would be granted for the movement of NSW beehives into the state.
Agriculture Victoria has set up a local control centre in Irymple with 40 staff to conduct surveillance during pollination and to ensure compliance.
A new detection of varroa mite, which weakens and kills bees, has been confirmed near Coffs Harbour on the NSW north coast, taking premises with infected hives to 43 in the state.
About 1800 hives have been euthanased since the mite was first detected near the Port of Newcastle on June 22.
The Almond Board proposed a biosecurity bubble to allow NSW beehives to work on almond plantations along the Victorian-NSW border.
Mr Jackson said there had not been much “appetite” for the board’s proposal as the involvement of more hives from NSW would have resulted in fewer hives from other states.
“Every other state outside of Queensland were dead against moving hives (from NSW),” he said.
“Beekeepers were concerned that if New South Wales bees came to Victoria, then there was potential for the varroa to spread.”
Almond producers require between 150,000 and 200,000 hives to pollinate crops which have been valued at more than $500 million.
Mr Jackson said the board was now putting a greater emphasis on risk mitigation strategies as it did not expect the current outbreak to go away soon.
“Whether it’s artificial pollination, maximising the use of self-fertilising trees – which at this stage still always produce better when they’ve got some bees in them – all those options will
be back on the table,” Mr Jackson said.
“This won’t be a one-off. In my experience with other incursions is it takes some time for it to conclude.”
