ABARES executive director Jared Greenville said based on the current climate outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology, ABARES considered the average scenario to be the most likely, with prices expected to increase to $80 per megalitre across the southern basin in 2023-24, up from $29 in 2022-23.
This compared to an average annual price of $218 over the past 10 years.
“The run of La Nina years is set to come to an end, with the BOM reporting a 50 per cent chance of an El Nino event developing in 2023-24,” Dr Greenville said.
“However, the shift to drier conditions is likely to be offset by high storages that have been built up over the past three years.
“High opening allocations and an exceptional allocation outlook for 2023-24 will translate into high water availability and provide a lot of certainty for irrigators making planting and water-management decisions.
“Low water allocation prices and high water availability will continue to support irrigated agricultural production in 2023-24.”
