HOLY guacamole, the avocado industry is on target for a record production year and Barham Avocados is one of the producers looking at big numbers coming out of its Murray River orchards.
Production forecasts show a 139,000-tonne crop nationally for 2023-24 – up a whopping 20 per cent on the previous year and a record total.
The growth has been driven by more than 1500ha of extra plantings starting to come online to try to meet what has been insatiable demand for the fruit.
Katrina Myers, who runs Barham Avocados with her husband Tim, said while everyone in the industry had big numbers last year, that was being offset now by a poor season in Western Australia.
Ms Myers said this was another good year for supply, and although prices had been softer, there were signs production would only climb a little more before plateauing in the next few years.
“There was a big boost in planting five years ago, with a lot of newcomers rushing into the industry because it was doing so well,” Ms Myers said.
“Those trees are now maturing and their production is starting to make waves nationally.
“But the rush to plant dropped right off about two years ago and there have been no new serious expansions since then.”
Last week Rabobank released its 2024 Global Avocado Update and it suggests production will keep rising sharply as all those plantings in recent years start fruiting.
RaboResearch analyst Pia Piggott said while domestic demand for avocados continued to grow “the local market remains oversupplied, with prices languishing at low levels”.
She said rising export demand was offering the biggest market growth opportunity for the Australian industry.
“The export market, which accounts for 13 per cent of Australia’s total avocado production, has brought some relief to the oversupplied local market,” Ms Piggott said.
“Australian avocado export key markets are Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia, but there has also been significant growth in Japan (up 193 per cent year-on-year) and new market access to Thailand and India will also help diversify exports.”
The US continues to be the world’s largest importer of avocados and its demand is also expected to continue growing.
“We have all seen this coming,” Ms Myers said.
“But while production is booming, we see it topping out in 2026.
“We are domestically focused but we are now registered for export to India and we are looking at sending some product there this year, as any export market for any agricultural production is a valuable opportunity.
“At the same time, export may not be the silver bullet the likes of Rabo are suggesting.
“We see it as just another tool in our marketing belt.”
Ms Myers said her company’s relationship with its local suppliers was always their priority.
She said with demand soaring in the past year or two, their suppliers had needed them for throughput.
Now production has softened prices, she agreed growers would be looking to their local suppliers for some support.
“After that year we will see where the market is going – there is nothing new in the Rabobank report and all farming is a case of good and bad production years, of supply and demand and of strong relationships with your supplier partners,” Ms Myers said.
“You also have to realise avocado are traditionally a biennial crop, bigger yields every other year, although we have been able to level that out so we have consistent volumes each year – and we are pretty happy with that.”
