NNW UNITED v LAKE BOGA
WHILE it might be rare for there to be two draws in one season, it’s even rarer for two clubs to go into a game having both played in a draw at their last start – but that’s exactly what will happen tomorrow when Nyah-Nyah West United host finals contender Lake Boga.
The Demons and the Mallee Eagles played out a thrilling tie last Saturday, with the Eagles coming from behind to keep their faint finals hopes alive. Lake Boga arguably let a very winnable game slip when they faced Koondrook-Barham a fortnight ago, before enjoying the bye last weekend.
While Lake Boga look to be the stronger side on form, given they find themselves inside the top five with six wins and NNW United are eighth with just three, there is no doubt that tomorrow is a danger game for the Magpies.
The Demons have undoubtedly improved since the two teams met back in round 4, when Lake Boga won at home by 37 points. NNW United will welcome back Brent Arho, who missed the Demons’ past two games against Kerang and the Mallee Eagles. Arho has kicked an astonishing 24 goals from his past three games in the red and blue and could well be the difference between winning and losing.
United will also welcome back midfielders Dylan McLachlan, Zac Caccaviello and Matt Duffy. All are set to give the Demons’ midfield a major boost in both class and depth and assist in-form onballers Brady Davidson, Jarrod Skinner and Jaydyn Stirling.
The midfield battle will no doubt be where this match will be won and lost, especially when you line the home team’s on-ballers alongside the Magpies’ engine room of Nathaniel Holmes-Brown, Dustin Burns and Taylor Johnstone. The issue for Lake Boga could well be whether we see either Matt Filo or Josh Cruse-Filo on Saturday, with both players missing the draw against the Raiders a fortnight ago.
If either or both Filos return, that could be enough to tip the scales in favour of Lake Boga, especially with the continued good form of ruckman Jacob Simpson – but if not, then an upset may well be on the cards.
Tip – Lake Boga to win by 12 points.
SWAN HILL v TYNTYNDER
TYNTYNDER will be looking for their sixth straight win when they travel across Pritchard Street to take on arch-rivals Swan Hill tomorrow afternoon.
The Dogs (fourth) find themselves three-and-a-half wins clear of the Mallee Eagles (sixth), and victory on Saturday guaranteeing a place in their club’s first finals series since 2013. While everything is seemingly going to plan so far this season for Tyntynder, the same can’t be said for their cross-town rivals, with the Swans battling both form and injuries to key players throughout the first half of the season.
One thing that would certainly give Swan Hill supporters great delight would be a victory over their main rivals – especially one that put’s a dent in their finals plans.
The Swans will lose both Leighton Dullard and Taj McMillan from the side that defeated the Mallee Eagles by 24 points at their last start, with Dullard likely to miss the rest of the season with a knee injury. While Dullard’s absence will be a major loss, it’s hoped the Swans’ key-position stocks will be strengthened by the inclusions of Tom Spicer and Buol Majur.
Tyntynder have their own injury concerns, with Zac Denham (hamstring) and Josh Stone (calf) set to miss. Full forward Jason Eagle will return after missing last Saturday’s win over Koondrook-Barham, along with key defenders Jackson Morris and Patrick Crowe.
With Eagle back in the side, the job of manning the Doggies’ key forward will most likely fall to in-form defender Brendan Blackmore, who did a serviceable job on the danger man when the two sides last met six weeks ago.
The real battle between the two sides will be in the centre, particularly with Xavier Moloney now spending more time on-ball in recent weeks. Moloney’s return to the midfield has given his side a much-needed touch of class around the footy and is giving Matthew Wade a helping hand in the engine room.
Tyntynder were happy to let Wade run last time and backed their midfield runners in to cause enough headaches going the other way – which they did. The question is whether they go with the same plan and back in the likes of Marcus Wattie, Kyle Brasser, Brodie Bennett and Tom Bull to get the job done. Or do they sacrifice a rotation and send a stopper to Wade to shut down his influence on the game?
Whichever way the Doggies go, they will need to get their hands on the ball first – and with their season still to play for, there’s just too much on the line for them to drop this game.
Tip – Tyntynder to win by 20 points.
WOORINEN v MALLEE EAGLES
WOORINEN will return home to Tigerland with their tails up following last Saturday’s mauling of previously unbeaten Kerang.
The Tigers completely dismantled the Blues in an impressive display of disciplined and aggressive football, with Marcus Demaria’s men pressuring the premiership favourites into uncharacteristic mistakes all afternoon.
The biggest challenge for Woorinen may well come from themselves. Having already climbed the mountain last Saturday, the let-down the following week could be just as hard. Mallee Eagles are no pushover either and have shown at times this season they are more than capable of producing an upset – although a win over the two-time reigning premiers would certainly be an upset with their current injury list.
Tom McGregor will return after missing last weekend with concussion and will most likely go to Lachie Gardner, whose contested marking impressed against Kerang. The Eagles aren’t the only ones with selection headaches, however, with Woorinen expected to have Adam Saunders, Ben Booth and Lachie Wright all likely to miss – with Wright’s absence dependent on Bendigo Pioneers selection.
Booth will be a big loss for the Tigers, with the key defender being the natural choice to stand dangerous key forward Sam Dunstan. That role will now fall to mid-season recruit Mitchel Taylor, whose long kicking and creativity out of defence added another layer to Woorinen’s back six in his first game in the yellow and black last Saturday.
If the Mallee Eagles are to cause an upset, they will have to get the job done out of the middle and put the pressure on Woorinen with their strong stoppage game. Much of their strength in this area lies with the ruck-midfield combination of Angus McKenzie and Harry Allen, both in solid form of late, along with Darcy McGregor and Toby Sheahan. But there are question marks on Sheahan’s fitness, having spent large portions of last weekend’s draw deep forward instead of running through the middle.
Either way, the Tigers’ midfield depth should still be enough to withstand anything the Eagles throw at them – and they should be celebrating their ninth straight win come 5pm.
Tip – Woorinen to win by 30 points.
TOOLEYBUC-MANANGATANG v BALRANALD
DESPITE sitting seventh, two-and-a-half wins outside the top five, Balranald’s finals chances will be very much alive if they get the points against Tooleybuc-Manangatang this weekend.
Of all the teams still mathematically in the finals race, the Roos have the easiest run home, with only one game against a team above them on the ladder – Tyntynder in the final round – remaining. Winning all five remaining games would put Balranald right in the hunt come season’s end, but this leaves no margin for error.
The Saints’ season has flatlined in recent weeks, with a seven-game losing streak now punctuated by heavy losses to Tyntynder and Cohuna in the past two weeks. The big concern for Dean Helmers isn’t his team’s form line, but rather their ever-growing injury list, which includes Shylo Smith (hamstring), Jonathan Marsden (wrist), Ryan Kliemt, Darcy Spinks and Ben Arentz – among many others.
One player who may return for the home side is Shane Foley, who missed Tooleybuc-Manangatang’s loss to the Kangas with concussion but will be a chance to resume provided he passes a fitness test at training.
It hasn’t been all bad news for the Saints though, with Alex Powell simply dominating games since he was moved into the ruck on a permanent basis. Powell’s ability to not only compete in the ruck, but then expose his opponent around the ground, has been extraordinary – and he will be the one player Balranald will need to put significant time into stopping.
The Roos have many key players capable of winning the game off their own boot, but perhaps none as damaging as joint coach Jydon Neagle. While capable of playing any position on the ground, Neagle’s ability to read the play and put the ball to his teammates advantage is invaluable and makes him the Saints’ No.1 target.
Neagle isn’t alone in impacting the game for Balranald, however, with able support coming from midfielders Jack Salau, Colin Andrews and creative half-back Ryan Middlebrook. Drew Lloyd has rediscovered his early-season form in recent weeks and is proving problematic for opposition sides both in the midfield and up forward alongside Ben Fuller.
Tip – Balranald to win by 25 points.
KOONDROOK-BARHAM v COHUNA KANGAS
THE Cohuna Kangas will be hoping to lock away a top-three spot when they travel to Barham to take on the Raiders.
The Kangas have had their injury concerns over the past month or two – and while they are slowly starting to get something resembling their best team on the park, they will still have a couple of forced changes to their side with Riley Hird and Brenton Conforti both likely to miss with injury.
While their expected absence will hurt the visitors, it’s also expected to be offset by the impending returns from injury of midfielder Tom Toma, key defender Mason Fehring and back-up ruckman Christopher Anderson. All three are getting closer to a return to the senior side and only need to pass a fitness test.
Toma in particular will be a massive plus for Cohuna, who have been missing his speed and creativity out of the middle since injuring his hamstring against Kerang in round 8. The midfield is where the Kangas will need to improve if they want to push deep into the finals this season, with their key position stocks both forward, back and in the ruck unrivalled in the Central Murray.
For the Raiders, a win would seem to be an ask too great against a side who is every chance to make it to the final game of the season. What they will be aiming at, however, is to continue to improve, especially with their younger players getting more and more game time each week.
Kye Attwell continues to develop into a dangerous key forward, while Jack Shannon will be a midfielder of the future and has taken his game to another level this season alongside Jordan and Lucas Iudica.
If Koondrook-Barham can keep the margin to less than 93 points – the margin when both teams met in round 4 – then that should be seen as a win. Or at the very least, show they are on the path to improvement.
Tip – Cohuna Kangas to win by 70 points.
