THE unemployment rate is expected to remain steady or fall further as demand for labour remains strong, when the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases its latest labour force data.
In June, the jobless rate fell to 3.5 per cent – the lowest rate in 48 years.
The ultra-low level of unemployment meant there was effectively one unemployed person for every vacant job in June.
CommSec senior economist Ryan Felsman anticipates the jobless rate to remain unchanged at 3.5 per cent when the ABS releases the July figures on Thursday, and predicts around 20,000 jobs were created.
NAB economist Taylor Nugent offered a similar forecast, noting that the July figures “come with more than the usual level of uncertainty”.
He said the major fall in the June unemployment figures were “more signal than noise”, but said there were some technical reasons to believe the July figures would be weaker despite the relentlessly competitive labour market.
The Reserve Bank of Australia expects the unemployment rate to fall even further in light of strong demand for labour and high numbers of open jobs.
The tight labour market is yet to show up meaningfully in higher wages, with the wage price index landing slightly below expectations on Wednesday.
